With the constant stream of data about COVID-19, it can be hard to make sense of all the numbers. We look at the base rate fallacy, and how some people are making this mistake when assessing risk.

Recently I've been deep-diving into a model of brain, mind, and behavior—active inference and the free energy principle—developed by a leading neuroscientist and computational psychiatrist Karl ...

What happens when an entrepreneur realizes their project isn't delivering? It can create a crossroad between perseverance and prudence—the point where passion meets pragmatism. The resulting decision ...

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Bryce Hoffman writes about leadership, strategy, and decision making. The hot-hand fallacy is a cognitive bias that leads ...

The fallacy can occasionally be massaged slightly into a much more palatable and seemingly wise saying: "Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence." "While this sounds pithy, it's not strictly ...

Quote of the day, from economist Milton Friedman: “Most economic fallacies derive from the tendency to assume that there is a fixed pie, that one party can gain only at the expense of another.” In ...

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed climate change is a fallacy, criticizing California's environmental ...

“It is impossible to approach the gambling table without becoming infected with superstition,” writes Alexei Ivanovich, the Russian tutor in Dostoyevsky’s powerful novella The Gambler. Even Alexei’s ...

Megan McArdle spent years in a doomed relationship. The reason, she says: She fell victim to a common economic fallacy. Our Planet Money team has a love story with an economic idea at its heart. And ...