Weekly indicators provide a timely nowcast of the economy, signaling changes before monthly or quarterly data is available, and help “mark your beliefs to market.”. Long leading indicators, including ...

The yield curve is often seen as one of the better early warning indicators for a recession. Since 2022, the yield curve is inverted again and warning of a recession which has not happened so far, ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has ...

The Federal Reserve seems poised to cut interest rates soon, and fear of a recession is one driver why the central bank would want to slash borrowing costs. Steven Goldstein is based in London and ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

A recession indicator with a flawless record has been flashing red for 20 months. The economist behind the inverted yield curve says it's too soon to declare it's wrong this time. Campbell Harvey, a ...

When the 2-year Treasury yield eclipsed the 10-year Treasury yield on July 5, 2022, it caught many investors’ attention. The event — commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion — was largely viewed as a ...

Maybe the reason is that the government response to the pandemic is the gift that's still giving or ongoing Fed monetary tightening actions. Since June 2022, the yield curve — the difference between ...

One of Wall Street’s most accurate recession indicators briefly flashed red, spooking some investors and causing others to wonder whether things are “different this time.” The spread between the ...

The Fed overestimated inflation and went too far with rate hikes, Duke finance professor Campbell Harvey said. He's the founder of the market's most famous recession indicator: the inverted yield ...

Two recession indicators are on the verge of flashing as the unemployment rate ticks higher and the yield curve uninverts. But stock market investors can still rest easy as the drivers behind each ...

An inverted yield curve is a signal of near-term economic pessimism. The curve changes right before and during a recession. The way the yield curve is changing today is especially alarming for ...