Two African states are frustrating Moscow's efforts to establish a stronger military presence in the continent following the fall of Assad.

Russia is transferring advanced air defense systems and military equipment from its military base in Syria to Libya.

A military official at al-Khadim air base in eastern Libya said that a half-dozen Russian planes — some coming from Russia and some from Syria — had arrived carrying military equipment since Dec. 8, when Syrian rebels overthrew Russia’s ally, Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, the scale of the challenge facing Syria is greater than that which confronted Libya in 2011. Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown after less than a year of conflict that cost thousands of lives. But on his death, much of the country’s infrastructure remained intact. Libyan rebels had exported oil even before his overthrow.

Leaders in Rome fear Moscow's warships could be parked "two steps" from Italian shores, as Defense Minister Guido Crosetto put it.

Russia has begun withdrawing a large amount of military equipment and troops from Syria following the ouster of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, according to two US officials and a western official familiar with the intelligence.

Even with hopes running high, so much can go wrong when a country ousts a longtime dictator and tries to start anew

After the fall of the Assad regime, Russian cargo planes flew equipment from Syria to bases Moscow controls in eastern Libya, according to U.S. and Libyan officials.

The country is deeply divided along religious and ethnic lines, which makes continuing violence one likely scenario.

History tells us that where a fragmented coalition of armed groups finds itself in a political vacuum, more violence is probably on the horizon.

Losing Syrian military bases would hurt the Kremlin’s attempts to project power in the Middle East and Africa.