The preliminary results of Azerbaijan’s investigation into the deadly crash of a civilian airliner point to the plane being hit by a Russian antiaircraft missile, or shrapnel from it, said people briefed on the probe.

The flight was en route from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku to Grozny, in Russia’s south, when it diverted and attempted an emergency landing in Kazakhstan.

Increasing analysis suggests Russian air defenses might have downed Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, which crashed in a ball of fire near Aktau,Kazakhstan on Wednesday morning, killing 38 of 67 passengers and crew.