Trump has sent letters to leaders of dozens of countries outlining the tariff levels set to begin on Aug. 1. In recent months, Trump has rolled back some of his steepest tariffs, meaning delays could be possible in the case of the Aug. 1 deadline. The Trump administration appears to have stood largely behind the deadline in recent days, however.

An escalatory spiral that leads towards Eurasia's 10% 'trade war' scenario, however, would prompt Brussels to deploy escalatory measures, such as "export controls/duties, public procurement curbs, and/or penalties on U.S. services exports" by using the ACI "trade bazooka as a last resort," they concluded.

The United States appears firm on its slated tariff increase on the EU following comments made by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick over the weekend.